Will the Scottish team at last end their All Blacks hoodoo?

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.