From Reluctant Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”